Washington, Nov 2 (IANS) Americans vote on Tuesday in midterm elections that will decide whether President Donald Trump keeps a Republican-controlled Congress for the last two years of his term or faces a Democratic majority armed with subpoenas and control over spending.
Republicans go into election day holding both chambers by thin margins. In the House of Representatives, Speaker Mike Johnson has 218 Republicans and one independent, Kevin Kiley of California, against 214 Democrats, with two seats vacant. “For Jeffries to get a chance to take the speaker’s gavel, Democrats must attain a net gain of three seats, pushing their numbers to at least 218 — a simple majority,” ABC News reported.
The Senate is split 53-47. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to make Chuck Schumer majority leader, while Senate Majority Leader John Thune can lose three seats and keep control with Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote. Thirty-five Senate seats are on the ballot, 22 of them held by Republicans.
The Cook Political Report rates seven Senate races as toss-ups: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. Six of those seats are held by Republicans and one by Democrats. “We see Democrats as the slight favorites,” Cook said in its closing Senate analysis on October 30. In the House, Cook said, “we’re projecting that Democrats flip 12 to 25 seats, giving them as many as 240 seats in the House.” Sabato’s Crystal Ball says Democrats appear to hold a narrow edge for the Senate.
National polling points the same way. The RealClearPolling average of the generic congressional ballot on Sunday put Democrats ahead by about 51 per cent to 43 per cent, Newsweek reported, and the Silver Bulletin average shows a Democratic lead of about nine points. Trump’s approval rating stands at about 37 per cent in the horserace.report average. The Silver Bulletin forecast gives Democrats about a 95 per cent chance of retaking the House and says that in the Senate, “Democrats do have a meaningful edge.” The Economist’s model gives Democrats a 55 per cent chance of flipping the Senate and about a 95 per cent chance in the House.
History is against the President’s party. Since 1946, presidents with approval ratings below 50 per cent have seen their parties lose an average of 36 House seats in midterm elections, compared with 14 seats for presidents above that mark, according to Gallup.
Republicans hope new maps will soften the blow. Ten states have redrawn their congressional maps since summer 2025, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Texas’s new map could give Republicans up to five more seats, while California’s voter-approved Proposition 50 makes five seats more favourable to Democrats, according to Ballotpedia Missouri’s new map is on hold pending a referendum.
For Trump, a Democratic House would mean investigations by committee chairs and leverage for Democrats over government funding, including money for the war with Iran. A Democratic Senate would also give Schumer’s party control over the confirmation of judges and Cabinet nominees.
For Democrats, the risk lies in the Senate map, which runs through states Trump won, some by double digits. Winning the House but falling short in the Senate would leave Republicans in charge of confirmations.
Indian Americans are watching the results closely. At least 57 Indian American candidates are on Tuesday’s ballot.
Polls close in the first states at 6 p.m. Eastern time. Results in close races, including Alaska’s ranked-choice count and California’s slow count, could take days.
–IANS
lkj/rs